A market expert has predicted with near-certainty that the price of Flash NAND memory is set to plummet heading into 2019. We’ve heard previously how there is an oversupply of Flash NAND memory, although it appears this oversupply is on a far larger scale than expected.
According to Objective Analysis’ Jim Handy, the market is set for a huge downward pricing correction or, potentially, even a collapse. The current market value of 64-layer 3D NAND is around $0.30 per GB, but Handy believes the price per gigabyte will drop as low as $0.08 in 2019. According to The register, Handy said it will be “the largest-ever price correction in the history of semiconductor products.”
That’s a formidable claim if ever we’ve heard one, and it’s a result of current overpricing combined with increased supplies. We’ve got a lot of NAND memory manufacturers wanting a slice of what is currently a very lucrative pie, but a growth of 45% in supplies of NAND Flash in this year alone, without a similar rise in demand, means prices are going to tumble in dramatic fashion.
Based upon current SSD prices, the reduced worth of 3D NAND memory could see the price of commercially available solid-state storage drop my as much as 75%. Next year, more than ever, SSD’s could finally begin to move nearer to the holy grail of HDD pricing. At this point, SSD sales should begin to eat away at HDD sales in a significant fashion.
Interestingly, Handy believes that this oversupply of 3D NAND could see providers shift their manufacturing over to DRAM, resulting in a similar over-supply of DRAM in the near future. DRAM is also arguably the subject of over-pricing right now, even if it’s nowhere near as bad as it was a year or two ago.
For those looking to save a few pennies then, it looks as if 2019 is going to be an opportune time to pick up that mass storage SSD you’ve always dreamed of. Likewise, it may pay to wait until 2020 for that eventual DDR5 RAM upgrade.
With prices set to plummet, are you planning to splash out on a new SSD next year?
Source: The Register